The Weather Guy – Two systems on the horizon…

It’s been a productive week here at Thredbo with consistent snow falls since Wednesday resulting in over 30cm falling across the resort, plus a bunch more blowing in from the main range thanks to gusty northwesterly winds.

But what’s in store for the next week?

Well we’re in for a couple of nice weather days on Wednesday and Thursday with settled conditions before a front approaches late on Friday.

Front 1: Friday & Saturday

Precipitation should begin to fall late on Friday, with snow confined to the higher peaks, but freezing levels are expected to drop on Saturday with snow falling right to the village.

I’m calling a 60-70% chance at seeing up to 5cm on Friday night and into Saturday.

A weak ridge should build on Sunday, allowing conditions to settle down and maybe even see a few sunny spells before the next system moves in soon after.

Front 2: Monday, Tuesday

Monday is looking promising for snow falls to around 1400m, before the airmass chills even further and the freezing level drops to around 1200m on Tuesday. All up, our fingers are crossed for 5-15cm over these two days, with gusty pre-frontal northwesterlies helping out by blowing some snow in from the main range.

At this stage, there is pretty good agreement between models so confidence is sitting at about 60-70% but, we should be prepared for a few adjustments as the major front is almost a week away. Update: (As of Thursday 13/7) One reliable forecasting model remains adamant of heavier precipitation on Tuesday (particularly west of the ranges). This means there is the outside chance of totals up to 20cm if this area of moisture makes it over the ranges and onto the slopes of Thredbo. At this stage, confidence remains low at about 30%.

Why does Thredbo do so well under gusty northwesterly winds?

Well, beyond the boundaries of the resort, “up by Kosciuszko’s side”, there are expanses of undulating highlands that sit at around 2000m. Virtually any precipitation that falls when it is even close to cold throughout the winter months will fall as snow and collect up there.

As the northwesterly winds increase ahead of a front (which is a pretty typical wind direction before a front) it blows the snow down into the valley where the resort is located and settles in the protected nooks and crannies as wind stashes.

Fingers crossed that this time next week we will have another 20cm or so on the ground!